How to build per-location creative fatigue detection at multi-location scale

The 4-skill bundle on the paid-social-creative agent

One agent. Four coordinated skills. The Measure + Calibrate + Gate + Audit bundle runs above the per-platform paid + AI- creative + causal-inference substrate and writes one canonical per-creative-fatigue-event record.

Compliance overlay

Five anchors run per-creative-fatigue-event before any rotation decision routes. The first anchor is operationally distinctive: replication-crisis discipline under post-iOS-14.5 modeled- conversion noise + Apple ATT + per-platform Conversions API attestation are the substrate without which fatigue measurement is not credible.

FAQ

What is per-location creative fatigue detection — and what is the iOS-14.5-attribution-collapse-times-replication-crisis problem distinctive to this skill?

A DTC ecommerce + multi-location operator ships per-platform creative variants per audience per location at high cadence. Creative fatigue causes CTR + conversion rate + ROAS to decline as a creative variant ages or saturates the audience. The four-skill bundle on the paid-social-creative agent — Measure, Calibrate, Gate, Audit — sits above the per-platform paid substrate (Meta + TikTok + Snapchat + Pinterest + LinkedIn + YouTube + Google Ads + Microsoft Advertising + Apple Search Ads) + AI-creative substrate (Persado + Phrasee + Anyword + Jasper + Writer + Copy.ai) and writes a per-creative-fatigue-event canonical record. The operationally distinctive anchor: Apple App Tracking Transparency iOS 14.5 IDFA + Google Privacy Sandbox have collapsed deterministic attribution. Per-platform Conversions API (Meta CAPI + Google Enhanced Conversions + TikTok Events API + Pinterest CAPI + LinkedIn CAPI + Snapchat CAPI) provides server-side measurement but with modeled-conversions noise. Creative-fatigue measurement under this regime requires replication-crisis discipline (Brier + Expected Calibration Error + reliability diagram + isotonic / Platt / Beta recalibration + Rosenbaum bounds + E-value + pre-registration of analysis plan + Bonferroni + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR + Holm-Bonferroni + Storey q-value multiple-comparisons correction across per-creative per-audience per-location test families). Plus EU AI Act Article 50 transparency when AI-generated rotational creative + Tennessee ELVIS Act when celebrity image/voice + FTC Endorsement Guides material-connection.

Why do Smartly.io + Madgicx + Revealbot + Bannerflow + Celtra + Pencil + AdCreative break at AI-ML-fatigue-detection scale post-iOS-14.5?

Each ad-management vendor ships per-tenant flat creative-rotation primitives + per-platform native fatigue signals. Each AI-creative vendor ships flat variant generation. None measures creative fatigue under post-iOS-14.5 modeled-conversion noise with causal-inference rigor (PyMC + Stan + NumPyro + bambi Bayesian + CausalML + DoubleML + EconML + Synth + CausalImpact + GeoLift + propensity-score + regression-discontinuity). None applies replication-crisis discipline: Brier + ECE + reliability diagram + isotonic / Platt / Beta recalibration + Rosenbaum bounds + E-value + ASA p-value statement + pre-registration of analysis plan + Bonferroni + BH FDR + Holm-Bonferroni + Storey q-value across per-creative per-audience per-location test families. None gates AI-ML rotation decisions against EU AI Act Article 50 + Article 22 + Annex III + Tennessee ELVIS Act + FTC Endorsement Guides + SOX when public-company + ECOA disparate-impact + Apple ATT + per-platform Conversions API attestation. None writes a per-creative-fatigue-event audit trail with regulatory-defense retention. The four-skill bundle Measure + Calibrate + Gate + Audit sits above the ad-management + AI-creative + measurement substrate — it does not replace it.

How does Measure + Calibrate work under post-iOS-14.5 modeled-conversion noise?

Measure runs per-portfolio per-banner per-location per-platform per-creative-variant per-audience-segment continuous fatigue measurement. Per-creative signal: CTR trajectory + conversion rate trajectory + ROAS trajectory + frequency + reach + impression-share + Quality Score + CPC inflation + per-platform Conversions API server-side conversion signal + per-platform attribution window + per-platform modeled-conversion attestation. Per-creative-audience-location triple: per-audience-saturation curve + per-location demographic shift. Causal inference via PyMC + Stan + NumPyro + bambi + brms Bayesian + CausalML + DoubleML + EconML + Synth + CausalImpact + GeoLift + Differences + Matching + propensity-score + regression-discontinuity-design. Calibrate runs replication-crisis discipline: per-test power-analysis + per-test minimum-detectable-effect + per-test pre-registration of hypothesis + analysis plan + decision threshold per Center for Open Science (cos.io) + AsPredicted + protocols.io + Open Science Framework + per-test-family multiple-comparisons correction (Bonferroni + BH FDR + Benjamini-Yekutieli + Holm-Bonferroni + Hochberg + Sidak + Storey q-value) + Rosenbaum bounds + E-value + ASA statement on p-values 2016 + ASA statement on statistical significance 2019 + Nature 2019 Eliminate Statistical Significance. Calibration metrics: Brier score + Expected Calibration Error + reliability diagram + isotonic regression + Platt scaling + Beta calibration. Per-platform Conversions API match-rate attestation.

What does Gate + Audit do?

Gate runs 5 anchors per-creative-fatigue-event before any rotation decision routes. (1) Replication-crisis discipline pass + per-test multiple-comparisons correction + Rosenbaum bounds + E-value + ASA p-value statement + pre-registration evidence + Brier + ECE + reliability diagram. (2) Apple ATT iOS 14.5 IDFA + Google Privacy Sandbox + per-platform Conversions API attestation (Meta CAPI + Google Enhanced Conversions + TikTok Events API + Pinterest CAPI + LinkedIn CAPI + Snapchat CAPI). (3) EU AI Act Article 50 transparency for AI-generated rotational creative + Article 13 + 14 + 15 + Annex III when AI-ML fatigue-detection drives rotation + Article 6 + 27 FRIA + Tennessee ELVIS Act 2024 + 11-state deepfake matrix when AI-generated creative uses celebrity image/voice + Illinois BIPA + Texas CUBI + Washington biometric + DSA Article 26 advertising transparency + Article 28 minor protection + Article 30 + DMA. (4) FTC Endorsement Guides 16 CFR Part 255 + FTC Fake Review Rule + FTC Act Section 5 + Pfizer 1972 + FTC MARS + Health Products + Negative-Option + ROSCA + Click-to-Cancel + CFPB UDAAP + state UDTPA + Lanham + Robinson-Patman + FDD Item 12 + 15-state franchise + per-vertical (HIPAA + ABA Model Rule + FINRA + SEC Reg FD + FDA + alcohol + ). (5) SOX 302/404/906 when public-company + COSO + Exchange Act 13(b)(2) + FASB ASC 606 + IRC Section 263 + SEC Reg S-K + ECOA Reg B 12 CFR 1002 disparate-impact + 4/5ths rule + Title VII + Fair Housing + EEOC AI Guidance 2024 + NYC Local Law 144 AEDT + GDPR Article 22 + Article 6/7/9/28/30 + LGPD + DPDP + PIPEDA + Quebec Law 25 + CCPA + CPRA + COPPA + KOSA + 18-state. Audit writes a per-creative-fatigue-event WORM canonical record: per-creative measurement snapshot + causal-inference method + calibration metrics + per-test pre-registered plan + multiple-comparisons correction applied + Rosenbaum bounds + E-value + per-platform Conversions API attestation + Apple ATT + per-anchor gate-pass + AI-ML rotation decision + per-platform AI-disclosure tag + FRIA artifact + ECOA disparate-impact retrospective. Storage: AWS S3 Object Lock + Azure Blob immutable + GCS Bucket Lock + Wasabi WORM. Retention: 7-year FTC + 7-year IRS Section 263 + 7-year SOX + 6-year SEC + 3-year FINRA + 4-year ECOA + 3-year EEOC + GDPR Article 30 + EU AI Act Article 12 + SOC 2 CC7/CC8.

What does this skill connect to on the paid-social-creative agent and across the swarm?

On the paid-social-creative agent: per-platform-creative-management (parent commercial pillar) + per-platform format adapters for ad creative (#558 sibling build-pillar) + per-platform compliance gating for social posts (#564 sibling build-pillar — UPSTREAM creative-policy gate) + compliance-first budget-creative pairing (#573 same SOX substrate) + per-location PPC bid + budget management (#577). Across the swarm: false-positive suppression for marketing data anomalies (#574 same replication-crisis substrate) + multi-stream severity routing (#578) + buyer-state-aware BANT scoring (#568 same ECOA + EU AI Act) + per-jurisdiction compliance multi-state franchise + master-record + governance-decision-router five-destination routing. Build-pillar siblings: tiered pre-filter deterministic gates for AI content compliance + marketing AI autonomy profile configuration + per-vertical compliance overlay. Commercial-pillar parent: /per-platform-creative-management.

What does the 6-workstream pre-engagement-baseline reporting cycle look like for this skill?

Every two weeks during the Tier 3 Fractional CMO with AI Swarm engagement, six workstreams report against the pre-engagement baseline. Workstream 1: per-portfolio per-platform creative-surface coverage — platforms enrolled + per-platform Conversions API attestation + Apple ATT + Google PS attestation + per-creative-variant volume. Workstream 2: Measure causal-inference flow — per-creative-audience-location measurement + Bayesian PyMC/Stan/NumPyro + CausalML/DoubleML/EconML + Synth + CausalImpact + GeoLift + propensity-score + RDD applied. Workstream 3: Calibrate replication-crisis discipline — per-test power-analysis + pre-registration + Bonferroni + BH FDR + Holm + Storey q-value + Rosenbaum + E-value + Brier + ECE. Workstream 4: Gate-pass/gate-fail distribution — per-anchor gate-fail + EU AI Act + ELVIS + FTC + SOX + ECOA + Apple ATT + CAPI attestation. Workstream 5: Regulatory-defense audit coverage — replication-crisis + Brier/ECE + Rosenbaum + ASA p-value + Apple ATT + per-platform CAPI + EU AI Act Article 50 + Tennessee ELVIS Act + FTC + SOX + ECOA. Workstream 6: FBC feedback-loop pattern-learning — per-creative realized-vs-predicted fatigue + per-platform Conversions API match-rate + per-vertical pattern shifts.

Related reading

• Parent commercial pillar: per-platform creative management
• Sibling build-pillar: per-platform compliance gating (#564 UPSTREAM creative-policy gate)
• Sibling build-pillar: compliance-first budget-creative pairing (#573 same SOX substrate)
• Sibling build-pillar: false-positive suppression (#574 same replication-crisis substrate)
• Fractional CMO with AI Swarm
• AI Readiness Assessment