2 published lessons with this tag.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
The ability to see clearly — not optimistically, not pessimistically, but accurately — is rarer and more valuable than most technical skills. Calibrated perception compounds into better decisions, and better decisions compound into better outcomes at every timescale.