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Learn/Tag: bayesian-updating

Lessons tagged “bayesian-updating”

1 published lesson with this tag.

Bayesian updating in practice

Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.

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AI-augmented-cognition DRY-principle Feynman-technique GTD MECE PKM abstraction accountability adaptive-expertise adaptive-systems adaptive-thinking adversarial-environments affect-as-information affect-heuristic affect-labeling affordances agency ai-augmentation analog analogical-thinking analysis architectural-decision-records architecture-decision-records argument-mapping argumentation assumptions atomicity attachment attention attention-fatigue attribution audience-awareness audience-management automatic-cognition automaticity availability-heuristic avoidance awareness base-rate-fallacy batch-processing bayesian-reasoning bayesian-thinking bayesian-updating behavior-change behavioral-change belief-formation belief-perseverance belief-revision bias bias-blind-spot blind-spots blockers boredom boundary-testing burnout calibration capture categorization category-revision category-theory causal-reasoning chain-of-thought choice-architecture chronotype chunking circadian-rhythm clarity classification cognition cognitive-awareness cognitive-bias cognitive-blind-spots cognitive-defusion cognitive-dissonance cognitive-distortion cognitive-distortions cognitive-diversity cognitive-efficiency cognitive-empathy cognitive-extension cognitive-flexibility cognitive-freedom cognitive-function cognitive-inertia cognitive-infrastructure cognitive-load cognitive-offloading cognitive-performance cognitive-psychology cognitive-restoration cognitive-restructuring cognitive-schemas cognitive-science cognitive-training collaboration commitment communication competitive-advantage completeness complexity composability composition compounding compression concept-mapping confirmation-bias conformity constraints constructivism context context-collapse context-design context-engineering context-sensitivity context-switching contextual-intelligence conversations creativity critical-thinking cross-cultural-communication cross-domain cultural-conditioning cultural-context curation curiosity cycles daily-practice dashboard debiasing decision-documentation decision-fatigue decision-journal decision-journaling decision-making decisions decomposition decontextualization deep-work default-mode default-mode-network default-thinking definitions deliberate-practice dependencies depth-of-processing diagrams digital digital-communication digital-detox digital-environment digital-minimalism direct-observation directed-attention distraction documentation domain-specificity dual-coding edge-cases embodied-cognition emergence emotion-regulation emotional-calibration emotional-context emotional-granularity emotional-regulation emotions encoding encoding-specificity energy energy-management environment environment-design environmental-design epistemic-humility epistemic-hygiene epistemic-survival epistemics epistemology errors evaluation evergreen-notes evidence evolution executive-function expertise explicit-knowledge expressive-writing extended-mind externalization externalized-cognition faceted-classification failure falsification feedback filtering first-party-data flow flow-state fluency focus forecasting forgetting-curve formal-knowledge foundations fractal-patterns frame-analysis framing-effects friction general-semantics generation-effect goal-setting goals granularity groupthink growth-mindset habit-formation habit-interruption habit-stacking habits handwriting hermeneutics hierarchy hindsight-bias history identifiers identity illusion-of-knowledge implementation-intentions implicit-bias implicit-cognition inbox inbox-processing incentive-structures information-architecture information-diet information-literacy information-management information-overload information-quality information-systems information-theory inner-speech inquiry institutional-memory intellectual-humility intention interoception interpersonal interpretation intervention intuition invisible-assumptions journaling judgment knowledge-construction knowledge-decay knowledge-graphs knowledge-management knowledge-organization knowledge-representation knowledge-structures knowledge-transfer language learning lifecycle lindy-effect linguistic-relativity linking maintenance meaning meaning-making measurement media-literacy meditation meetings memory mental-models meta-cognition meta-learning meta-skill metacognition metadata metrics mindfulness miscommunication model-updating models modularity mood mood-congruent-memory motivation multi-dimensional multimodal-capture multitasking naive-realism naming network-effects neuroplasticity neuroscience noise noise-filtering non-judgmental-awareness note-taking notifications nuance nudge-design nudge-theory nvc observation optionality organization organizational-behavior organizational-learning overconfidence paradigm-shift path-dependence patience pattern-recognition patterns peer-feedback perception perceptual-calibration perceptual-learning perfectionism personal-epistemology personal-informatics personal-knowledge-management perspective-taking phase-closer phase-finale phase-opener photo-notes phronesis physiology planning polysemy positivity practical-wisdom practice pragmatics pragmatism pre-commitment precision precommitment prediction prediction-error prediction-tracking presentism prioritization priority probability-estimation problem-identification problem-solving processing procrastination productivity progress prototype-theory quantified-self questions reactivity reasoning reclassification recombination recovery redundancy refactoring reflection reflective-practice relationships repetition resistance resolution rest retrieval retrospective review review-process risk risk-assessment risk-perception rituals roles routines rumination sapir-whorf scaffolding scale-invariance schema schema-awareness schema-design schema-evolution schema-literacy schema-theory schemas scope seasonal second-brain second-order self-assessment self-awareness self-direction self-examination self-explanation self-knowledge self-monitoring self-regulation self-similarity self-tracking semantic-ambiguity sensemaking sequences shallow-work shared-mental-models signal-detection signal-noise signal-processing signal-vs-noise situated-cognition situational-awareness skill-building sleep slow-looking social categorization social-cognition social-influence social-media somatic-awareness spaced-repetition state-dependent-learning state-machines statistical-thinking statistics strengths strengths-based stress structure structured-reasoning structured-thinking success superforecasting surprise synthesis system-1-thinking systematic-bias systems systems-thinking tacit-knowledge tagging task-batching task-design task-switching taxonomy team-cognition technical-debt temporal-discounting temporal-reasoning theory-of-mind thinking time time-management tools tools-for-thought tracking transcription transfer triage triggers trust type-safety type-system uncertainty understanding values versioning visual-thinking voice-notes weekly-review wisdom workflow workflows working-memory workspace writing writing-as-thinking writing-to-think zettelkasten

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